Resolving the Errors-in-Variables Bias in Risk Premium Estimation by
نویسندگان
چکیده
The Fama-Macbeth (1973) rolling-β method is widely used for estimating risk premiums, but its inherent errors-in-variables bias remains an unresolved problem, particularly when using individual assets or macroeconomic factors. We propose a solution with a particular instrumental variable, β calculated from alternate observations. The resulting estimators are unbiased. In simulations, we compare this new approach with several existing methods. The new approach corrects the bias even when the sample period is limited. Moreover, our proposed standard errors are unbiased, and lead to correct rejection size in finite samples.
منابع مشابه
Bayes, E-Bayes and Robust Bayes Premium Estimation and Prediction under the Squared Log Error Loss Function
In risk analysis based on Bayesian framework, premium calculation requires specification of a prior distribution for the risk parameter in the heterogeneous portfolio. When the prior knowledge is vague, the E-Bayesian and robust Bayesian analysis can be used to handle the uncertainty in specifying the prior distribution by considering a class of priors instead of a single prior. In th...
متن کاملPresenting a Model for Portfolio Risk Premium Assessment: Evidence from the Tehran Stock Exchange
This study aimed to present a model for portfolio risk premium assessment of companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. In order to achieve this purpose, monthly data of 150 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2007-2017 was used. In this study, the predictive powers of FamaFrench three-factor model [11], Carhart four-factor model [1], Fama - French five-factor model [24], Brousseau...
متن کاملExamination of Equity Premium Puzzle by Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model with Fuzzy Nested Regimes: Evidence from Iran
The aim of this study is to examine the equity premium puzzle in Iran for the quarterly period of 1993-2016. In this regard, the hybrid bivariate Garch model and also fuzzy dummy variables with consumption capital asset pricing model (C-CAPM) have been used. The results of study show that using C-CAPM within fuzzy dummy variables (CCAPM-F), the relative risk aversion coefficient of investor is ...
متن کاملInvestigation of the Potential Market and Estimation of WTP for Insurance of Pistachio Tree Trunk (Case Study Rafsanjan-Iran)
Capacity of garden productions in Iran is such that is accounted as a country that produces thirteen garden products in the world but despite excellent condition in Iran for producing garden products, natural disasters damage production of fruits in the country therefore farmers incur a loss. Pistachio tree has been in danger of destruction and dryness. Thus, in order to reduce loss incurred on...
متن کاملTHE COMPARISON OF TWO METHOD NONPARAMETRIC APPROACH ON SMALL AREA ESTIMATION (CASE: APPROACH WITH KERNEL METHODS AND LOCAL POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION)
Small Area estimation is a technique used to estimate parameters of subpopulations with small sample sizes. Small area estimation is needed in obtaining information on a small area, such as sub-district or village. Generally, in some cases, small area estimation uses parametric modeling. But in fact, a lot of models have no linear relationship between the small area average and the covariat...
متن کامل